Having been part of a US led contingency plan myself (thankfully not one that was put into action in my time) I know that the level of detail that goes into American wargaming is exceptional and the algorithms they use to determine levels of damage and casualties are sophisticated. One thing we can be sure of is that US Pacific Command will be planning for all ‘fighting’ eventualities with a high degree of granularity.

This, coupled with maximum diplomatic effort, soft and hard, should sit alongside military operations and exercises designed to demonstrate what it could look like if these efforts fail. But, as is the way, there are plenty who believe that the situation will continue to be managed by ongoing diplomatic efforts and the deterrent effect of our combined militaries.Ĭertainly, the ongoing importance of both conventional and nuclear deterrence cannot be underestimated right now. In the longer term, is war with China inevitable? General Mike Minihan of the US Air Force says it is a hawkish stance that I suspect is shared by quite a few in the US military. His message is timed with Yellen’s visit to create maximum international effect but internally it is as likely to be a kick aimed at his generals than an immediate call to arms. Xi’s military numbers and rate of build might be eyewatering but what experience underpins them? Russia’s efforts in Ukraine have shown repeatedly that spectacular parades do not equate to hardened fighting competence. One can make a case that this constant need to posture in this way masks a lack of confidence. Hu Jintao did something similar in 2011 telling his military to “make extended preparations for warfare”. This is not the first time Xi has timed an info-ops stunt like this to coincide with a diplomatic visit and neither is he the first Chinese President to do it.

It’s ironic, but not unprecedented, that at the exact same time, President Xi is telling the troops of the Eastern Theatre Command – the one that faces Taiwan – that they need to step up their combat readiness and “… persist in thinking and handling military issues from a political perspective, dare to fight, be good at fighting, and resolutely defend our national sovereignty, security, and development interests.” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Beijing for talks aimed at easing some of these tensions.

Triggers are many and varied including human rights, relations with Russia vis-à-vis Ukraine, microchip manufacturing and the big one, Taiwan. Interdependence and mistrust continue to mix uneasily. Tensions between the West and China show no sign of easing.

World of warship submarines